Donald Trump’s Chance Of Winning Soars
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Joe Biden’s campaign is floundering.
The Economist’s prediction model is giving Donald Trump a 74% of winning the electoral college and Joe Biden a 26% chance.
Former President Trump’s odds of returning to the White House are on an upward trajectory, and President Biden’s chances of re-election are in free fall as the Democratic Party’s presumed nominee faces mounting scrutiny over his ability to serve as commander in chief for another term.
As of Monday, The Economist’s prediction model showed Trump had a roughly 3-in-4 (74%) chance of winning the electoral college in 2024, while Biden had a 1-in-4 (26%) chance.
The model predicts Trump will rack up 310 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win, compared to an expected 228 for Biden. When the two candidates first squared off in 2020, Biden won the presidency with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
While Trump’s chances have seen a boost of three points and Biden’s dropped by the same amount since Biden’s disastrous performance at the debate between the two candidates on June 27, Trump has held a commanding lead in the forecast for months. But the model shows that in early June, Trump’s odds began to climb steadily while Biden’s plummeted.
Many Democrats were hoping that Joe Biden’s bad polling numbers would lead to him not running for re-election.
Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief for Cook Political Report, said that Washington insiders have expressed hope that the bad poll numbers will push Biden into announcing his exit from the ticket.
“Insiders we spoke with over the weekend said they expected a ‘deluge’ of Democratic congressional defections by Monday,” Walter said. “As of Tuesday morning, those desertions have amounted to no more than a trickle. Even so, plenty of nervous down-ballot Democrats and donors are hoping that team Biden, confronted with worsening poll numbers and an aggressively antagonistic press corps, will see the writing on the wall and gracefully announce his exit from the contest. That possibility looks remote as of this writing.”
“We can’t wave away the uncertainty of this moment, but we can try to soberly assess where things stand today, and where they are likely to go from here,” Walter added.
